A million people live in Kaliningrad, a Russian territory that borders no friendly country. Squeezed between Poland and Lithuania and severed from the Russian mainland since 1991, it can be crossed by car in under two hours. The Baltic Fleet is stationed there, along with Iskander launchers, S-400 batteries and a network of radars and jammers that reaches well into Polish and Lithuanian airspace.
On the first day of October 2026, Vladimir Putin turned that small exclave into the subject of a warning aimed at the whole alliance. Speaking at the Valdai Discussion Club outside Moscow, he said that any attempt to cut Kaliningrad off from Russia would be met with “all weapons” at Moscow’s disposal, nuclear ones included. He then added something that received less attention than it deserved: “The point of no return can arrive very quickly and unexpectedly for everyone.”